In situation analysis, which is a method for assessing the current state of affairs, it is essential to "name the moment." In the face of a highly infectious and fatal virus for which there is no vaccine and no cure, public health leaders have clearly stated that we must retreat, shelter in place, until the rate of infection tapers off. We are now in the process of "managed retreat." The key here, as Dr. Jacobs explained to the Rebuild by Design teams, is that it must be managed, and need not be feared.
To manage a retreat of this magnitude, several processes are essential.
First, we must ensure that all people have the fundamental requirements for supporting human life, for those familiar with Maslow's hierarchy this are the foundation for life.
Health care must be in place for the 20% of those infected who will have serious illness. As the potential numbers will overwhelm the US health care system, it is essential that excess temporary capacity be created. Tents and temporary hospitals will be key to managing this part of the retreat.
It is also essential that everyone with a mild illness weather it out at home with as good a plan as possible. I was lucky, when I was ill with an undefined illness that did not include cough or fever, that my brother, Josh Thompson, gave me sound advice on vitamin supplements (Vitamin C every couple of hours, Vitamin D 4000 IU, zinc tabs often for a few days than once a day, and Zarbee's elberberry cough medicine). These and other symptomatic aids can help -- it has been advised to keep your cell phone handy in case it gets worse. Lots and lots of fluids, recommended every doctor I consulted.
Food has to be provided. Delivery should be expanded. Free food must be made easily accessible for people who need it. And supermarkets have to be stocked to the best of our ability.
Money has to continue to flow. Over the second half of the 20th century, Big Business did its best to destroy the wages, protections and benefits of workers, leaving half the work force at the mercy of gig employment, scraping along with no cushion. That half of the workforce is likely to be un- or underemployed in the next period of time. This is a grave part of the retreat that we must manage. Extending unemployment benefits to all would be a sound first step. Suspending utility cut-offfs (and reconnecting those who've been disconnected) and evictions are also essential protections.
Housing is essential. Governor Gavin Newsome of California was reportedly buying hotels to house the homeless -- there are 30,000 or so in the state.
Second, there is one other element of managed retreat that I think is also foundational, confidence, or morale, as social psychiatrists like me like to say.
Confidence is essential: we must have faith in ourselves. We are retreating so that we can come back and fight another day. My father, Ernest Thompson, was forced to retreat from his civil rights organizing during the McCarthy Era in the 1950s. He and his colleagues vowed to "retreat to the ghetto and come back strong," They did -- building powerful political movements around the US. We must support the morale of the population. Demoralization can kill as surely as a virus can.
Naming the moment "managed retreat" is to distinguish it sharply from "recession" or "depression." This is a temporary situation. Epidemics rise and fall -- we have to wait out the worst of the storm. Our economy is large, Paul Krugman says, and vital (I highly recommend his NYT column and newsletter). The economy will bounce back when we can return to the streets. For one thing, having sat in our houses for days, if you're anything like me, we will all have a list of things to be improved or fixed. I'm off to Valley Hardware first thing.
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